Emerging from Hibernation

Our president has foolishly floated the idea that our economy can be roaring again by Easter (just a few short weeks away). Public health officials are horrified but trying to temper their responses to avoid an unequal but opposite over-reaction to their advice. But to the president's credit, he has at least started a conversation about how we begin to get back to normal when the time is right.

Economists write that our economy was very strong going into this crisis, and it is logical to assume it will bounce back to a strong position. But I started to think about this on a micro-level, from the perspective of one company that I know and love. Emerging might, in fact, be very challenging. For some organizations, it might feel very much like starting over.

I mentioned in a previous COVID-19 post that our favorite travel company, Overseas Adventure Travel, canceled all trips departing in March and April. Based on the current state of affairs around the world, I think it is more likely to be July at the earliest, before anyone even thinks about international travel.  So, that means OAT will have been essentially closed for at least 4 months. With a stretch like that, resuming trips is by no means a trivial exercise.

Let's take the example of a trip we're considering in the future to Tunisia. It's a pretty typical OAT trip, 16 days long, including the two over-the-ocean travel days. The issue for OAT becomes how quickly they can reassemble all the elements that it takes to make this trip a success. How many of the people and organizations that they rely on are still in business and available? Here's what's needed:

• One flight on a domestic airline
• Two buses with drivers; one for 12 days from Tunis to Djerba; another in the vicinity of Tunis for 2 days
• 5 hotels, most for several nights -- ~16 travelers, including several singles, probably translates to 11 hotel rooms
• Most meals are provided -- so assume 10 locations for lunch and 10 locations for dinner
• A high-quality Trip Experience Leader
• Local guides for some cities
• And the activities -- museums, visits to local artisans, schools, markets

As a tour company with a reputation for high quality experiences, OAT will have challenging decisions to make. They need revenue, obviously. They want to start working with all their foreign vendors as soon as possible to provide them with revenue as well. And people (at least some people) will be eager to travel as soon as it seems feasible. But how many of the pieces of the previously well-designed trip need to be in place before they are willing to run the trip again? How do they balance speed versus quality and preserve their reputation and their livelihood?

This is just one example that I can envision because of personal experience. Now multiply that by all the different businesses that will be trying to emerge from hibernation. It's a complex set of interdependencies that might be very challenging to manage well.