Quote of the Day -- John Ruskin

The highest reward for a person's toil is not what they get for it, but what they become by it.

-- John Ruskin

COVID-19 and the Economy

Coronavirus isn't new. We've experienced a number of flavors of this virus through the years. But the virus that is ravaging populations around the world is being called COVID-19 (for the year it appeared) or novel coronavirus. "Novel" because no human body has seen this virus until now, and thus no one in the world has immunity.

Scientists believe it jumped to humans in a market in Wuhan China, probably when some kind of wild animal being sold for food was bitten and infected by a bat. The infection spread to humans and quickly adapted to achieve human-to-human transmission. From the perspective of the virus -- nirvana. A new target with zero built-in immunity.

Although specialists in infectious diseases started to express concern, most of us hoped (assumed) it was a flare-up in a few places -- first China, then Korea, and then Italy. We thought it could be contained, like Ebola and SARS. But about two weeks ago, it became obvious to people all over the world that the window of opportunity for containment was closed.  So now, we are all focused on suppression -- flattening the curve -- so that our medical systems don't get completely overwhelmed while we are developing treatments and a vaccine and building herd immunity.

Just two weeks ago, life was still fairly normal,and then suddenly, it wasn't. As we watched the number of cases rise exponentially and traverse the globe, governments around the world began to take drastic action. Italy, still the worst-hit place, went into lock down -- confining everyone to their homes except for necessary excursions for buying groceries and medicine. A hard-hit area northwest of NYC did the same. Countries began instituting 14-day self-quarantine for all arriving foreigners, with many ultimately closing their borders. 

In the US, the focus initially was on eliminating events where large numbers congregate. The NCAA canceled March Madness. When an NBA player tested positive, the league chose to cancel the rest of the season. Openings for baseball and soccer were postponed indefinitely. Soon, the focus moved to smaller events -- live theater and concerts. All this happened in just a few days -- the advice changing from "no groups greater than 250 people" to "no groups greater than 10 people." Then, about a week ago, many states closed schools and ordered restaurants, bars, movie theaters, and gyms to close. In the hardest-hit states (New York and California), they have basically gone into "shelter in place." All retail is closed except grocery stores and pharmacies. 

Our consumer-driven economy hit a brick wall or drove off a cliff -- pick your image. We went from 60 to 0 in the course of two weeks. The travel industry is virtually shut down. Most retail has closed its doors. And while many knowledge-workers can telecommute, that isn't an option for the vast service industry. Unemployment is expected to reach 20% in the next few weeks.

Right now, we're in a waiting game. Most people have been self-isolating for 10 days or so. It will be at least several weeks before we start to get an indication about whether it is working and we are flattening the curve. In the US, the situation is complicated by the lack of adequate ability to test. That makes it hard to measure how big the problem is and to know when and if we have turned a corner.

We all know the market hates uncertainty.  Economists are in agreement that this is both terrible and unprecedented. Basically, large segments of the economy have suddenly come to a complete standstill. And no one knows how long self-isolation will last. Optimistic predictions take us to the end of April before some easing. Others think the virus and its economic impact will ebb and flow for about 18 months. That's how long it will take to build some kind of herd immunity through the combination of exposure and vaccines. And no one really knows what a recovery will look like. We are all in uncertain times, both for our health and our pocketbooks.

Governments around the world are exploring options for shoring up their economies and preventing collapse. In many ways, this crisis, like a war, will test what we are made it. Do we try to protect businesses and the nest eggs of their investors? Or do we focus on ensuring that we provide a safety net for the "everyday people" who will be hit hardest by this economic catastrophe? I hope I can look back a year from now with the knowledge that we did the latter.

Quote of the Day -- Daniel Kahneman

A general “law of least effort” applies to cognitive as well as physical exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature.

– Daniel Kahneman

Quote of the Day -- Harry S. Truman

...not all readers are leaders, but all leaders are readers.  

-- Harry S. Truman

Quote of the Day -- Dylan Thomas

Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light. 

-- Dylan Thomas

Settling in to a New Normal in the Age of Coronavirus

It's easier for us. We've been retired for awhile. We're used to filling our time with (mostly) worthwhile things so we can reach the end of the day without feeling we've wasted it. 

What's noteworthy for me isn't the social distancing, it's the digital coming together that's happening. And Zoom is proving to be one of the stars in this crisis. Monday night, my book club met via Zoom. Tuesday, we did "Grandma and Grandpa story time" with our granddaughter in Seattle. Wednesday, our whole family got together for a "welcome home party" for Christie, who is safely back from Africa. Today, I did "Grandma leads yoga" for our grandkids in Minnesota.

One of my former work colleagues set up a Facebook group where people can share ideas about what to do with all your new "social isolation" time. People are very creative, and they are sharing some great resources. For example, I had no idea that Broadway HD is available. Last night, Jim and I watched "She Loves Me." It was delightful.

I think that as people (adults at least) adjust to the new normal, they will find that filling their time isn't a problem. Almost 10 years into retirement, I haven't begun to run out of things to do. But I find the support people are providing as we all adjust is truly heartwarming and encouraging.

Book Review -- I Miss You When I Blink

I was a bit confused when my reserved library book arrived. It's categorized as "biography," but the subtitle is "Essays" and several of the reviews on the back cover describe it as "memoir." In an interview that author Mary Laura Philpott did with fellow writer Ann Patchett, she talked about a similar discussion she had with her publisher -- essays or memoir? She chose essays but in at least one other country, they removed the "Essays" subtitle and called it a memoir instead. Philpott really didn't care either way.

Delightfully, it is both. Philpott's collection of essays -- sometimes poignant, sometimes painful, always with wry, self-deprecating humor --is a wonderful way to write a memoir / autobiography. The essays are arranged in a loose chronology without any sense of marking events ("then this happened, followed by this"). Instead, they capture moments and their importance from the perspective of her future self, or sometimes their ultimate lack of importance in the greater scheme of things. 

As Philpott points out time and again, perspective is everything. For example, here's a wonderful passage about child-rearing looking back from the viewpoint of the mother of teen-agers:

If you believe there's one right answer to every child-rearing question -- and I may not so much anymore, but I sure did for a least the first decade of parenting -- then you're prone to extrapolating every choice you make. What if Junior doesn't get into the 'best' baby music class, the one where they put all the maracas and ukuleles and xylophones out on the floor and let the tots gravitate to the instrument that calls them? Then what? He'll never learn to play music, which means he won't develop language and spatial skills, which mean he'll surely fail both English and math and never get into college. His hand-eye coordination will stall out, and he'll be unable to hold a fork. All the other kids will be conducting orchestras and building robots with their amazing fine and gross motor skills, but Junior? No, Junior will eat with his hands, miss his own mouth, and stumble through the world in Velcro shoes with peanut butter on his face. All because he didn't get on the waiting list for the music class fast enough.

I laughed and cried at the same time. That spiral was both ridiculous and realistic. It tugged at my heartstrings and tickled my funny bone. Which is Philpott's genius through the book. When Philpott examines her life, I feel like she is examining my life, except that she's able to see with so much more clarity and humor. 

Philpott addresses the ongoing debate about whether women can indeed have it all in her own unique way. And she nails it:

Deciding what you won't have in your life is as important as deciding what you will have. Trying out something you expect to love, realizing you don't really love it, and giving it back, that takes guts... It takes letting go of the idea that living right means racking up every honor you can get. It means understanding that success isn't about nailing every role; it's about choosing the roles you'll play and how well you want to play them. It's about refusing to see yourself as the passive recipient of a life someone else wants for you.

I'm sad that this is a library book. I may just buy it and revisit it from time to time.

Quote of the Day -- Willa Cather

Artistic growth is, more than it is anything else, a refining of the sense of truthfulness. The stupid believe that to be truthful is easy; only the artist, the great artist, knows how difficult it is. 

-- Willa Cather

Leadership in the Time of Coronavirus

Our Minnesota governor rocks. Plain and simple. This past Sunday morning, he held a press conference to announce that all Minnesota schools will close from March 18 to March 31. He spoke with solemnity and compassion. He described in the detail all the discussions that took place in the days leading up to this announcement, the many details ironed out to make it as effective as possible and to mitigate the impact as much as possible. And I am 100% sure that not once in all those discussions did he ponder how it might effect his reelection chances. This is what leadership looks like in a time of crisis.

So many people are writing about Donald Trump and how his flaws and failures are magnified by this crisis. He is a leader whose character (or lack of character) will ultimately cost many lives. But that wasn't obvious to many people until now. I remember a discussion with my husband about a month ago. I argued that the damage we all thought the Trump presidency would cause just hadn't happened. My husband listed off the terrible, short-sighted actions -- the unqualified sycophants filling many government positions and the vast number of vacancies in other important spots. All true, I argued. We know that, but what empirical evidence do we have, what facts, to demonstrate that it has caused serious problems? Now, unfortunately, the results are in.

In times of crisis, character is far more important than politics or policies. Is a leader willing to face hard truths and convince the people to face them as well? Is he willing to make the tough choices and take responsibility? Sadly, our president is fundamentally lacking in character. He's a narcissist who is able to view events only through the prism of how they affect him, whether the world respects him, and his chances for re-election. And he's a pathological liar. He just can't help himself. He's incapable of telling the truth.

In the past several days, he is attempting to look solemn and presidential, to ensure that everyone knows he has always taken this crisis with the utmost seriousness. The fact that his previous words are enshrined in news tapes and Twitter just doesn't penetrate his brain.  But, for the record, here's a short history of how seriously he has taken this crisis for the six weeks:

As the saying goes, hoisted by his own petard.

Quote of the Day -- Sydney J Harris

The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does; the first attitude creates a feeling of responsibility, but the second a feeling of blind arrogance that leads to war.  

-- Sydney J Harris